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Too Little Too Late, or Bye Bye World; We Hardly Knew Ye

 A science fiction author whose blog I follow is optimistic that we will take some action to address climate change.

I'm not optimistic at all. I think homo sapiens is already extinct, we just don't know it yet -- rather like Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff.
Why? Because of Upton Sinclair. In "How I Ran For Governor of California and Got Licked," he wrote: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."
Why? Because evolution drives organisms to seek short term benefit for the most part. There are exceptions (like bees) but they are few and far between. For the most part, doing things that are detrimental in the short term but beneficial in the long term is a good way to not pass down your genes to subsequent generations.
Why? Because of the Tragedy of the Commons, which is little more than the previous point written into human society. Few people will tolerate it if power does not come out of the wall immediately whenever they turn on the blow drier. Fewer people will tolerate federal money being spent on their grandchildren instead of them. No politician is able to see further than the next election.
Why? Because the same people who shout loudly for carbon free energy want to decommission nuclear reactors post haste. Germany is already doing this, replacing them with gas fired power plants, and thereby making their carbon footprint significantly worse. I dislike nuclear garbage as much as the next person, but that is a local problem and climate change is a global, existential problem. There are priorities.
Why? Because the deciding vote in the Senate is held by the Senator from Coal. Read the Upton Sinclair quote again.
Why? Because almost half the country believes science is optional, just another opinion, and the balance of power is held by those voters who pay the least attention and are often swayed by the loudest voices.
Why? Because NOT A SINGLE COUNTRY IS EVEN CLOSE TO MEETING ITS GOALS UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT. Not one. Not even the ones that are most smug about their progress. And the Paris Agreement is nowhere near good enough, so if we are not willing to meet those penny ante goals, we are never going to do anything that would actually address the scale of the problem. Countries still talk about their goal of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 C, but 1.5 C is already in the rear view mirror. There is no credible way we can keep it below 2 C, and people who know more about this than I do (like James Hansen) mostly believe 3 C is where we will end up. That is catastrophic. There lies drowned countries, hundreds of millions either dead or on the move, desertification on a large scale, disrupted monsoons, melted ice caps. Civilization would have a hard time surviving one of those. It will not survive all of them at once.
And finally, why? Because the first serious government recognition of climate change was in the Carter administration. And yet, here we are. We spent the 90's and early pre-teens laughing at Al Gore, when addressing the problem would have been a lot easier than it is now. Instead, we have pursued a relentless policy of tax cuts uber alles, depriving the government of the very resource it needs to solve the problem. Even the catastrophic recent weather events have failed to convince the majority of people that this is a problem for them to solve, not their grandchildren. By the time there is a serious majority committed to addressing climate change as their top priority, by the time they look around and say "Whoa! Where did all this come from? Maybe we should do something," it will be far too late. The atmosphere is a huge ship and it turns very slowly.
Human nature being what it is, I think we have one slim chance of success, and that is pouring research money into carbon removal technology. That may not work, but current trends show pretty clearly that nothing else will even be seriously tried.
But I don't think even that is going to happen. The very next time Republicans are in power, all that will be discarded as just so much libral fantasy. God will provide. Send your prayers. And it will be replaced with tax cuts.

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