How Journalists Get it Wrong When it Comes to Data

Europe is suspending use of the AstraZeneca vaccine left and right, in fear of blood clots. As Jethro Bodine would say, let's cipher.

There are reportedly about 40 cases of blood clots in the vaccinated population of about 17 million. Already, you can see we are in Are You Serious? territory. That is a rate of about 0.0002%.

The overall hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is about 100 per million per week, which means that of the 17 million who have received the AZ vaccine since January, something on the order of 17,000 would have been hospitalized if they hadn't been vaccinated. 

But COVID itself causes blood clots to form. According to a recent paper, it does so in about 20% of patients hospitalized. 20% of 17,000 is 3400.

So let's see . . . 40 with the vaccine, 3400 without.

According to the NIH, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism occur at a rate of about 1 in 1000 people -- 0.1%, or 500 times higher than the reported rate among the vaccinated. That sort of looks like being vaccinated might LOWER the risk.

I'm baffled why people are panicking. Well, no I'm not. We're being flooded with news reports about an Area Of Deep Concern Among Policymakers. Policymakers are not known by their ability to, you know, understand things. But this is grade school arithmetic. Any competent fourth grader can work it out.

This has been today's episode of Journalists, Stop Looking For Reaction Quotes And Just Look At The Fucking Numbers, Willya?

THELANCET.COM

Thromboembolism risk of COVID-19 is high and associated with a higher risk of mortality: A systematic review and

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